Senior Expert – Climate Change Mitigation Modelling for Tanzania's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), Dodoma, Tanzania

## Senior Expert – Climate Change Mitigation Modelling for Tanzania's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), Dodoma, Tanzania - Organization:UNEP - United Nations Environment Programme - Field location:Dodoma - Office:UNEP - United Nations Environment Programme in Dodoma Result of Service:A fully calibrated, documented and nationally owned set of long-term low-emission scenarios for the United Republic of Tanzania, comprising: a GHG baseline and BAU scenario; sector-specific net-zero-by-2050 pathways covering energy, transport, AFOLU, industry, waste, blue economy and human settlements, with explicit treatment of AFOLU carbon sequestration and nature-based solutions, cost-benefit, macro-economic and just-transition analyses, an assessment of the adaptation, biodiversity and investment implications of alternative pathways, including nature-positive investments and Article 6 carbon market opportunities; and a structured capacity-transfer to NCMC and VPO-DoE. Together, these outputs form the quantitative backbone of Tanzania's LT-LEDS, integrated as modelling annexes into the strategy document under the leadership of the VPO-DoE and the LT-LEDS lead consultant/consortium, supporting Tanzania's transition towards a climate-resilient, net-zero and nature-positive economy by 2050. Work Location:Dodoma, Tanzania Expected duration:12 months Duties and Responsibilities:The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the United Nations systems designated entity for addressing environmental issues at the global and regional level. Its mandate is to coordinate the development of environmental policy consensus by keeping the global environment under review and bringing emerging issues to the attention of governments and the international community for action. The NDC Act & Invest project is a global UNEP-led project funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI) and the Partnership Action Fund (PAF) of the NDC Partnership. It aims to support countries in raising their climate ambition and translating their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0), submitted in 2025, into concrete, financeable implementation plans, and in strengthening alignment between short-term NDC commitments and long-term low-emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). Under Article 4.19 of the Paris Agreement, the Government of the United Republic of Tanzania, through the Vice-President's Office – Division of Environment (VPO-DoE), is developing its first Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS). The Long-Term Vision (LTV) and Roadmap for the LT-LEDS were validated by the VPO in 2025 (with support from 2050 Pathways and CAN Tanzania) and define the country's overarching net-zero direction, sectoral aspirations to 2050 and the architecture of the forthcoming LT-LEDS. Tanzania's updated NDC 3.0, pending Inter-Ministerial Technical Committee (IMTC) approval ahead of submission to the UNFCCC, has been informed by the LTV and will serve as the immediate short-term anchor of the LT-LEDS. The full quantitative LT-LEDS will be developed under VPO-DoE leadership, in line with the overarching Terms of Reference for the development of Tanzania's LT-LEDS. The Government has requested technical assistance to support this work. UNEP, through NDC Act & Invest, has been confirmed to support a defined component of this process, specifically the quantitative modelling and scenario analysis required to translate the LTV into evidence-based long-term pathways. UNEP's contribution to this work will focus on the technical modelling building blocks (Work Package 2 of the LTV Roadmap: "Scenario Modelling and Quantitative Analysis"). Against this background, UNEP intends to mobilise a Senior Expert in Climate Change Mitigation Modelling to lead the modelling and quantitative analysis underpinning Tanzania's LT-LEDS. The Expert will work in close collaboration with the VPO-DoE, the National Carbon Monitoring Centre (NCMC), the NDC Implementation Secretariat, sector ministries, and the broader LT-LEDS lead consultant/consortium once mobilised, ensuring that the modelling outputs feed directly into the national strategy. Beyond its analytical dimension, this assignment is designed to reflect the integrated net-zero, nature-positive, resilience and investment-planning objectives emerging from Tanzania's national process, and to strengthen the link between the modelling work and the LT-LEDS policy, finance, Article 6 and national implementation agenda, in alignment with the objectives of the Net-Zero Nature-Positive (NZNP) Accelerator. Accordingly, the tasks set out below are framed to ensure that the modelling outputs are translated into actionable sectoral transition pathways, fully capture the country's significant AFOLU and carbon sequestration potential, assess emerging Article 6 and carbon-market opportunities, and quantify the investment needs required to implement the identified pathways. Taken together, these elements position the assignment not as a purely analytical exercise but as a strategic tool for informing policy decisions, mobilising climate and nature finance, supporting implementation planning, and reinforcing the overall credibility and usefulness of the LT-LEDS as a long-term development and investment framework. The Senior Modelling Expert will contribute directly to the achievement of Work Package 2 ("Scenario Modelling and Quantitative Analysis") of Tanzania's LTV Roadmap, providing the quantitative evidence base required by the LT-LEDS lead consultant/consortium and the VPO-DoE to formulate strategic priorities and policy options. The expected results below correspond to the main milestones of the work plan, each with performance indicators. Result 1: Methodology and inception and modelling architecture defined and validated o Activity 1.1: Review the validated LTV, the LTV Roadmap, the draft LT-LEDS ToRs ( as adopted in January 2026), the NDC 3.0 and existing sectoral plans (FYDP III, NCCRS, NAP, NBSAP, Vision 2050, Zanzibar Vision 2050, etc), together with relevant ongoing UNEP-supported field programmes in Tanzania, notably the GCF-financed “Building Climate Resilience in the Landscapes of Kigoma Region” project and the GEF-financed “Upscaling Ecosystem-based Adaptation in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem” project (executed by the VPO), and identify modelling-relevant data and policy gaps. o Activity 1.2: Propose a modelling architecture and tool selection (e.g. LEAP, TIMES, RDM, or other), including spatially explicit nature-related modelling tools (e.g. InVEST), which operate differently from traditional energy-system models such as LEAP and TIMES and therefore need to be considered from the outset to fully capture nature-positive outcomes and a macro-economic model (e.g. CGE or system dynamics) for the economy-wide and just-transition analysis, with justification, full disclosure of any proprietary software, licensing and access requirements (and their cost implications for national institutions), and a description of how outputs from the nature, energy-system and macro-economic models will be integrated, including indicators aligned with the LTV sectoral questions (Table 4 of the LTV that will be shared with the selected expert) and with UNFCCC LT-LEDS reporting good practice. o Activity 1.3: Define data requirements, including nature-related data such as land-use/land-cover maps and ecosystem condition and biodiversity indicators (drawing where relevant on datasets generated by the ongoing UNEP-supported ecosystem-based adaptation projects in the Kigoma and Greater Serengeti landscapes) sectoral coverage, time horizon, spatial resolution, and engagement protocol with NCMC, VPO-DoE, sector ministries and the LT-LEDS lead consultant/consortium. o Activity 1.4: Submit a methodology, an Inception Report and present it to a kick-off technical meeting convened by the VPO-DoE. Deliverables o Deliverable 1: Inception and methodology re