Consultant for Climate Action Planning, Bangkok

## Consultant for Climate Action Planning, Bangkok - Organization:ESCAP - Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Result of Service:Output 1. Annotated outline of the study, with a description of its methodology and data sources. (Necessary adjustments to the expected elements of the study can also be suggested at this stage) Deliverable. An annotated outline including (a) proposed structure, (b) scenario designs and methodologies. Delivery date. 15/09/2026 Output 2. First complete draft of the study Deliverable. First draft of the assessment, including scenario design, preliminary macro-fiscal implications, and initial policy findings. Delivery date. 15/10/2026 Output 3. Final study, incorporating all the feedback received. Deliverable. Final draft incorporating feedback, with references and technical annexes, that is ready for policy dialogue and publication. Delivery date. 31/10/2026 Output 4. Presentation of findings at capacity-building workshop for relevant policymakers Deliverable. Presentation delivered at national capacity-building workshop; accompanying PowerPoint and summary handout submitted. Delivery date. November/December 2026 Work Location:Remotely Expected duration:9/9-15/12/26 Duties and Responsibilities:In Mongolia, around two thirds of energy mix is coal based, another 30% comes from oil, while the share of other sources, including renewable energy, was only 3% as of 2023. Large share of the oil and gas are imported, making the country energy system both carbon-heavy and import dependent. To address this situation, Mongolia is pursuing an ambitious energy strategy by lifting national energy production capacity and expanding renewable energy sources. Such a major energy transformation is having significant implications for its economy, ranging from fiscal and public debt conditions, private investment, external account balance, inflation and monetary policy, labour markets and household welfare. To pursue the energy transformation without jeopardizing other social and economic development goals, policymakers need to understand the macroeconomic implications of possible pathways and scenarios. Examples of factors that need to be considered include the pace and scale of energy transition, priority sectors and the mix of public and private investment. In this context, the national study to be prepared under this project aims to enhance policymakers' understanding of economic implications of energy transition under broader climate action policies. The study will support the design and implementation of policies that promote both energy goals and socioeconomic prosperity in Mongolia. The objective of this consultancy is to support the Bank of Mongolia in strengthening technical capacity to integrate macroeconomic goals into energy transition and climate action planning. Deliverables and Structure The consultancy comprises the following components: 1) preparation of the national study; 2) participation in a workshop (in-person or remotely), to be organized in Mongolia, to support the dissemination of the national study findings and conduct capacity-building activities informed by key findings of the national study. The core analytical work is expected to be completed by end-October 2026. The preparation for and participation in the national capacity-building workshop is planned for November 2026. Part A. Core study: A macroeconomic energy sector transformation and expansion assessment study The 2025 and 2026 editions of ESCAP’s flagship report “Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific” provide the analytical foundation of this national study. Both reports examine the macroeconomic-climate nexus in Asia-Pacific developing economies, including transition risks, such as stranded assets, employment shifts, fiscal pressures, inflation and income inequality. In addition to arguing for developmental-state industrial policy, including for energy sector, the Survey also analysed topics such as green value chains, carbon pricing with revenue recycling, and integrated planning that balances short-term costs with long-term productivity, resilience and co-benefits. This national study should be around 8,000-10,000 words. An indicative allocation is around one-third of the words each for (1), (2) and (3), with flexibility as needed. 1) Baseline and analytical framework a) Conduct a review of Mongolia’s energy sector development objectives based on available government documents to establish a baseline for the energy sector development and climate action analysis. b) Assess Mongolia’s macroeconomic exposure to energy sector, including the implications of economic structure. Identify the main fiscal transmission channels through which energy transformation may affect Mongolia’s public finances, including revenues, expenditures, contingent liabilities, public investment needs, financing conditions and debt sustainability. Discuss energy transformation impact on other macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, trade balance and exchange rates. Discuss monetary policy implications. c) Discuss the impact of renewable energy development plans and scenarios on macroeconomic dimensions. d) Specify and document a transparent analytical framework for tracing climate shocks into macro-fiscal outcomes and public debt sustainability, including key assumptions, transmission channels, indicative elasticities and sensitivity ranges, ensuring that the methodology is rigorous, transparent and accessible to government counterparts. e) Ensure modelled findings contribute to Mongolia’s renewable energy development strategy relevant for the discussed macroeconomic implications of climate action and development plans, in particular energy and industrial sectors. 2) Scenario design and analysis a) Design and analyse policy-relevant scenarios, drawing on modelled scenarios, external research, climate-scenario framework and other relevant national and international analytical inputs, as appropriate, and adapt them pragmatically to Mongolia’s macroeconomic context, including: i) Current Policies baseline: Business-as-usual pathway reflecting policies in force at the cut-off date ii) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) / stated pledges scenario: Full implementation of Mongolia’s NDCs with no additional global policy tightening beyond stated pledges iii) Orderly Transition (Below 2°C / Net Zero 2050): Early, predictable and coordinated policy ramp-up consistent with Paris-aligned pathways iv) Disorderly Transition (Delayed / Divergent): Late and abrupt policy tightening to meet long-run targets, generating higher transition risks, such as stranded assets and inflationary and fiscal pressures b) Use Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models (especially dynamic, multi-sector, multi-region versions, hybridised with energy-system details) to analyses various energy-related decarbonisation scenarios for Mongolia. i) Consider different timeframes, energy sources, capital intensity of energy investment, carbon and other taxes. ii) Ensure the models represent the full economy through interconnected markets for goods, factors (labour, capital), and energy. iii) Incorporate carbon pricing, renewable subsidies, energy expansion, technology shifts, and revenue recycling into scenarios. c) The analysis should distinguish, where relevant, between physical climate risks related to energy transition and expansion and transition-related risks, recognizing that they may affect Mongolia’s macro-fiscal position through different channels. d) Use these above policy scenarios to summarize key energy sector expansion and transition (climate action) impact channels to inform policy package discussed in point (3) below. 3) Policy package, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation a) Readiness and gaps assessment (evidence-based): Using the scenario results, assess the readiness of key macro-fiscal, public debt management, and releva